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YOU AIN'T SEEN NOTHING YET." There is no better label for today's computer environment. It was also Ed Heere's message to us at our March DACS general meeting.

Twelve years ago Ed Heere left a comfortable marketing position with a major company for the challenge of starting his own business. By his own account the first few years were horrendous- but nothing that four hours sleep each night and credit-card juggling couldn't overcome. Today his business, AMSYS Computer, is thriving, and Ed is recognized as a successful businessman and an industry spokesman. Over the years he has been a major factor in the growth and strength of DACS. He has contributed to almost every aspect of our organization, including impromptu presentations when the scheduled speaker couldn't show up. Our March meeting was Ed at his best-his annual State of the Industry presentation. He shared with us his assessment of where we are today and what it will be like three years from now. This is not just his casual glimpse into a crystal ball; Ed's predictions are what he is betting his company on.

Twenty years ago in ancient times the computer was developing as a machine to be applied to the tasks of everyday life. As the computing machinery got better, our established businesses and technologies worked better. But that was then. Now machines are still getting better, but they are generating new socioeconomic environments undreamt of by the tradition-bound mortals we be.

Ed began his presentation by declaring that his remarks would be 100% his own-opinionated, irreverent, and based on profitable products that work. Anyone knowing Ed over the years would expect nothing less. His credentials and track record say just that.

He first discussed the trends and expectations for component parts. Ed showed us how prices and performance of components have changed since 1996: Performance is up and prices are down. This was certainly no surprise, but he cleverly used the illustration to launch his excursion into the near future. Without his price/performance base, he would have been making predictions. With that base established, predictions became projections with credibility.

Ed's delivery was casual, with touches of humor and a splatter of awful jokes. One was tempted to just sit back and enjoy it, but then one would miss all the cutting-edge remarks he interspersed with his patter. Among the data charts Ed displayed were a number of vintage Heere observations and asides.

Then came the speculations. Ed suggested that Microsoft might be actually better off broken up, and that Bill Gates might actually prefer it that way. Here are some more:

• Memory Chips. Any Pentium III processor below 600 MHz is obsolete. VIA is an imminent competitor to Intel and AMD. The price of memory chips is like that of gasoline-the result of the games producers play.
• ISA boards. The end is near. The newer motherboards just won't support them.
  DVD is the coming thing, and someday we will all be running video at our terminals, but the formats and protocols are changing too fast right now to justify spending much time or money on today's models.
• USB and MP3 are solid today and the way all new systems are going.
• Cable modems are great, but you can use them only if you live in a neighborhood where your cable service provider supports it. Most DACS members live either in the franchise area of Charter Communications, which does provide cable modem support, or in the area serviced by Comcast, which currently does not. Further bad news for Comcast customers is that it looks like the company may be as much as three years behind Charter in providing cable access to the Internet.
• DSL. The great promise and the great lie. If you live within three miles of a site, it may work-or it may not.

Having established the maturation of the PC as we know it, Ed then talked about the next generation of computers and proceeded to give us his three-year projection. Fishing the audience for key words to characterize this period, he landed "wireless," pointing out that the majority of the connected world now uses this technology. The advantage of wireless is that you can hook up to the Internet anywhere-and anytime. Ed commented that wireless is something that Paris does right. Unlike Paris, or the rest of connected Europe for that matter, the U.S. conducts most of its traffic on copper wire. This is simply because our phone lines are made with it and everyone has a phone line. But there are disadvantages to all of this copper. The ubiquitous phone lines actually hinder our adapting to the mobile way of life because it is easier-and much less expensive, in the short term at least-to use a system we are familiar with and already have in place.

The future look will be that of the cell phone, Palm Pilot, and pager-a world of compact, mobile, and interconnected devices. We will have a keyboard and a flat screen with a small box on the back of it that connects us to the rest of the world.

The other key phrase Ed used was "Internet appliance." He said that customary data storage and the use of installed programs will migrate to Websites that function like servers. He emphasized that this was not a return to the much maligned concept of the "dumb" terminal but rather a connection to the vast universe of information and processing power that is available today. Encryption will reign supreme, and many of the problems of today's local systems will just go away.

A particularly insightful and memorable message of the evening came during the Q&A session. In response to a question about direction, Ed encapsulated his entire presentation by saying that three years from now he and John Patrick would be standing together at the State of the Industry meeting saying the same thing.

DACS meetings that pitch a product serve their purpose. They introduce us to apps that we might otherwise never be aware of. But the major value of a DACS membership comes from the career and investment direction we can get from people like Ed and John Patrick, who speak from a vantage point we simply don't have. Both Ed and John have their entire fame, fortune, and sacred honor on the line when they talk to us, because in their own business decisions they are acting on those convictions. Pretty good reason to pay attention.