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Over the past few years I have given presentations on “How to Buy a computer” for the SeniorNet program at the Danbury Senior Center. The following chart was derived from data collected to prepare for these presentations.
It is obvious that has been a significant shift in the way the computers have been priced at retail for chip speeds between 2000 and 2400 Mhz. The Intel Pentium 4 and the AMD Athlon chips also contribute to the improved prices. Although sale prices do not represent the highest speed chip on the market, these systems are worthy of consideration when contemplating the purchase of a new or replacement computer. During 2003, these 2000+ Mhz chips became available in computers using the Microsoft XP operating system. In addition, the newer motherboard higher bus speeds support chipsets that also included capabilities previously requiring additional plug-in cards (such as USB ports, network interface circuitry, music/sound circuitry). In addition, the cost of RAM (random access memory) chips and large hard drives have dropped dramatically over the past two years. Producers also took advantage of the lower costs of overseas production. The lower PC costs induced new PC sales. Many business class customers replaced machines that were only three to five years old. Many individuals purchased a faster PC for the home. PC’s became a necessary tool in all education environments. More seniors were getting PC literate. Libraries obtained batteries of PC’s and made them available for clients. All this activity kept a downward pressure on PC prices. What’s coming?It is likely that in three to five years another quantum jump in computer chip throughput will reach the general PC market. This year the 64 bit bus chips are available for web servers (and Macintosh) computers. When the price point of these faster computers approach $1000, a new replacement cycle will occur. This will increase profits for hardware manufactures and operating systems. Where have we been?Fifty years ago IBM sold electric typewriters for $1500 or more in an era where a good annual income was $3000 a year. These machines were made to last decades. They were, however, replaced with newer technology such as the IBM Selectric typewriter (remember the bouncing ball?) in the 70’s and later with the personal computer in the 80’s. Back then everybody was saying that Moore’s Law could not continue into the future as it had in the past. Moore’s Law was a projection based upon history saying the speed of computers would double very eighteen months. Well, here we are four years into the new millennium, and Moore’s Law is still valid as a close approximation of PC chip speed growth. In 1954 the IBM 705 computer clock speed was 1 Mhz (1,000,000 cycles per second). You could hear the 705 running on an AM radio tuned to 1000 Khz. Well, the first PC came out in the 1982 with an 8 Mhz (8,000,000 cycles per second) chip and now PC’s have 3000 Mhz chips (3,000,000,000 cycles per second) which is almost 375 times faster than the first PC and 3000 times faster than the 1950’s computer. New trends in computer yearsIn the business world high-speed computer capabilities that used to require multimillion dollar computers supported by fifty people are now are on the desks of individuals doing things like aircraft design, hardware design, machinery design, building and bridge design. In the medical world graphical analysis of cell structures is being accomplished with the use of computers aided by imaging devices such as MRI and advanced electron microscopes. In the home, higher speed PC’s allow us to process digital photographs. This article was written using the speech analyzer “Naturally Speaking,” which requires processing of large quantities of information. High volume processing has also allowed us to process applications that use CD’s and DVD’s. A DVD is capable of holding 4.7 billion bytes of information written on a five inch diameter DVD disk surface. This quantity of information would require over 170 reels of ½” magnetic tape 2400 feet long (vintage 1950) and required twenty feet of bookshelf space to store the encased reels. Where do we go from hereGrowth in computing capability will continue to increase at astounding rates. This, along with the free exchange of ideas and a lifetime quest for learning will ever improve scientific understanding. The challenge is to properly employ this revolution to improving the lot of mankind, a much more formidable task. |
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This
chart depicts the computer price trends for two time periods.
The left most trend line represents computer prices in the 1999-2000
timeframe. The center and rightmost trend lines represent 2003
computer prices.