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As
I write this, I’m sweating over the Christmas presents I
have yet to purchase. When you read this, in all probability,
the New Year will have arrived and it will all be over but the
post-holiday sales and my annual predictions. Let’s review
my “unpredictions” from last year. Last January I listed
ten things I wished I could predict:
- SPAM will taper off into insignificance
after a change in the email protocol that includes a means to
positively identify the sender.
*** Well, well, surprise,
surprise! This didn’t happen, but there has been some progress.
Sender ID Framework (SIDF) is a measure to more accurately determine
from where an email message was sent. According to a Microsoft
white paper, “While this is not a final solution or silver
bullet to counter spam, the SIDF represents a significant industry
initiative to detect spoofed domains, reducing both spam and
phishing attacks while increasing the reliability and deliverability
of legitimate email.
- The music and movie industries will
start reasonably priced online services where music and movies
can be downloaded and viewed on a variety of devices.
*** Again, we are
close but no cigar. Low cost web sites selling music are becoming
more common following the success of Apple’s iTunes. While
iTunes has been a success with the iPod, these products are too
proprietary to really count toward the unprediction.
- In a fit of intelligent thinking, Congress
will repeal the USA Patriot Act and work to ensure our rights
to privacy.
*** Score one for
my keen insight.
- Congress will repeal the Digital Millennium
Copyright Act restoring our rights to use the music and movies
we have legally purchased.
*** Score two, but
this is like shooting barrels of fish with a bazooka.
- IBM will release OS/2 and its source
code to the open source community.
*** I don’t understand
why IBM has not done this. Perhaps Microsoft owns too much of
the code.
- Competition among high-speed Internet
service providers will become so intense that speeds increase,
availability becomes universal, and prices drop.
*** OK, I “lose”
on this one. Charter Cable bumped up speeds in reactions to broader
DSL availability and SBC countered with a speed increase to 1.5Mbps
on a “standard account”. I could grow to like this!
High speed Internet access seems to be available in one form
or the other everywhere in the “DACS area”.
- As part of the final verdict in the
appeals trial of Norwegian programmer Jon Johansen, the Motion
Picture Association of America (MPAA), will be forced to apologize
to Mr. Johansen and reimburse him for all legal costs.
*** Yes! The Norwegian
courts vindicated Mr. Johansen. Unfortunately, they did not force
the MPAA to grovel on the courtroom floor.
- The European Union will hold Microsoft
accountable for its monopolistic practices where the U.S. judicial
system failed.
*** As far as I can
determine, the jury is still out on this one, and the last item
I saw in the New York Times said that it appeared that Microsoft’s
penalties may actually be reduced.
- Microsoft will realize that their customers
are the users and not the music and movie industry.
- Linux will become a viable alternative
to Windows on the desktop.
*** On these last
two, all we can do is hope. I’ve been using Xandros Business
Edition Linux on my laptop for several months. It has its good
and bad points. I’ll write a full review soon.
I’ll feel I’m shirking my duty
if I don’t have some predictions for this year, but like
I said a year ago, predicting the future is hard.
—Jim Scheef
dacsprez@dacs.org
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Presidential
Ramblings
