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Bug or Bugaboo?

Should you take the Y2K seriously?

By Marlene Gaberel

SHOULD WE ALL be worried about the millennium bug? Yes . . . but not too worried. That was the nostrum from the rostrum from Ed Heere, who as moderator of the Y2K Conference presided over a panel of experts on the millennium bug assembled at the Ancell School of Business at Western Connecticut State University's west side campus. The event, jointly sponsored by DACS, WCSU, and the Greater Danbury Chamber of Commerce, explored the countless effects of the numbers crunch that will begin to unfold on January 1, 2000, as computers roll over from the two-digit year 99 to 00. Sharing the dais with Ed Heere were: Dr. Robert Baron, VP for Product Management for pi Technologies, a leading-edge developer of Year 2000 tools, methodologies, and professional services; Tom McIntyre, Senior VP Investments and Trust specialist at A.G. Edwards in Danbury, and past president of DACS; James Ragsdale, a member of DACS and a computer programmer involved in Y2K conversions; Rich Montague, Chairman of the Management Information Systems Department at Western Connecticut State University; Dave Rybarczyk, Director of Enterprise Technology for Citizens Utilities Co. of Stamford, and currently head of the Year 2000 program for the company's public services and utilities businesses; and Patrick Reilly, VP Marketing, Millennia III, a Year 2000 services firm in Westport, CT. Those who did attend the event were, at evening's end, able to decide for themselves whether they should hide out in a cabin in Alaska until the matter settles, just not worry about Y2K, or be aware but not panicky about the potential disruptions that the Y2K may bring to our lives. Panelists emphasized repeatedly that we should concern ourselves more about the impact on the macro environment--how ready are the many industries we depend upon for our daily lives--rather than on the microenvironment of our home computers. As far as our PCs are concerned, there are fixes and patches available from many resources on the Web. Attending users' groups can also be helpful in teaching you how to protect your PC from the Y2K. We learned that fixing the Y2K bug was less a challenge than the time-consuming task of finding the noncompliant codes in one's system. The Y2K problem, though not technically difficult to pinpoint, has a huge scope. Some of the speakers gave the audience examples of what it takes to go through the many pages of codes. Billions of lines of it need to be analyzed, requiring lots of painstaking research. Apparently, we think that only older mainframes have a Y2K problem; however, the codes of even more recent machines still use the two-digit dates, making them, too, noncompliant. Sectors of our economy particularly vulnerable to Y2K disruptions include communications, transportation, manufacturing, medical, emergency systems, banking, securities (stock market), business, insurance, and credit cards. Even more vulnerable than PCs and mainframes are date codes in the embedded chips that are found in virtually every device we use, from thermostats to microwave ovens. We learned that back in the 1970s when memory was very expensive, COBOL programmers took a short cut and used a two-digit date field, knowing full well it would cause a problem when the year 2000 was reached. They thought, however, that the machines they were programming would be long gone and replaced by that time. As Ed Heere mentioned, the first sector to realize the problem in 1969 was the real estate industry, when the 30-year amortization table did not print the last mortgage payment for January 2000. Though they promptly fixed their Y2K problem, there was little publicity about their findings and subsequent fixing of the bug. As far as cost is concerned, billions of dollars will have to be paid to fix the bug completely. Someone will have to bear that cost, and taxpayers and consumers will end up with the bill. Industries and the federal government have budgeted billions of dollars to Y2K. Some industries, such as the investment sector and branches of the government, are further along in the process than others. Governments and industries in foreign nations are even less prepared than the U.S. Europe is doubly anxious about the Y2K and the introduction of the Euro, scheduled to be introduced on January 1, 1999. Tom McIntyre said that the Securities and Exchange Commission now has a new law requiring public companies to disclose their Y2K status, including the impact the problem could have on the public, clients and shareholders. Ed Heere's advice to the audience was that a good response might be to declare a short holiday for nonessential personnel for the first few days of the year 2000, which would enable the country and the world to gradually take an audit of resources and to see if everything functions properly. He further advised the audience to start collecting hard copy of essential documents around the middle of next year--records of anything that is not immediately within our reach, such as money we own, money we owe, bank statements, mortgage payments, birth and death certificates, and proof of home or land ownership. The message of the panel was to not panic needlessly. There's no need to flee to that cabin in the wilderness until Y2K is over. On the other hand, you shouldn't be complacent either. Take steps to gather all you essential records a few months before January 1, 2000. Find out how your city, county and your employer are preparing for the Y2K problem. If nothing is being done, it may be worthwhile suggesting they start immediately. Ultimately they will be grateful.